Posts tagged ‘changing India’

Infographic – India expenditure data , rural

We’d earlier shared a set of infographics on per capita expenditure on various categories in urban India (https://escape-velocity-blog.com/2015/08/19/infographic-india-expenditure-data-urban/ ), and the trends over time therein (https://escape-velocity-blog.com/2015/09/22/infographic-india-expenditure-trend-urban/ ). This post shares similar data for rural India.

India MPCE - Expenditure data - Rural

The first point to note is that the average MPCE (monthly per capita expenditure) is much lower for rural India vs. that for urban India (Rs. 1429.96 vs. Rs. 2629.6 respectively). Hence, while the absolute value of expenditure on various categories may be lower in rural India, as a percentage of the MPCE it’s much higher. For instance, though the average monthly spend on food is Rs. 622 per capita, it is 48.6% of the total per capita expenditure ; this is closer to the proportion spent by the poorer fractiles of the population in urban India. One area on which folk in rural India spend much less than their counterparts in urban areas is housing, others are education and transportation. In almost every other category, the proportional spends (spending on category as a % of average MPCE) of rural folk are actually higher than those from urban areas.

 

  • Ravindra Ramavath

 

June 6, 2016 at 11:55 am 1 comment

English-Vinglish, and all that jazz

Read this article about the English Dost app via a friend’s Facebook feed and was reminded of a few incidents that I’ve witnessed during the last year.

On the day a friend left Mumbai for Singapore, among those who visited her house to say goodbye was her maid. The maid had brought her adolescent children along too, and I was amazed at the difference between the maid and her children. Had the mother not introduced me to her daughter, I’d never have guessed how closely they were related; the maid seemed like someone one step away from the ancestral village, while the daughter seemed a native of a big city.

While the mother wears a sari, cannot speak much English and is rather diffident, her daughter prefers jeans and a shirt, speaks good English and is much more confident. While the mother is uneducated, she’s ensured that her daughter got a school education and learnt English, and encourages her to attend college; even though the young girl has to hold down a part-time job in order to meet her education expenses at college ,she’s determined to obtain a college degree that will get her a better job than her mother’s and a brighter future.

A few months later, I was at Bodh Gaya for the sales and marketing module of a Cream training program. The participants comprised micro-entrepreneurs from villages in Gaya and Muzzaffarpur district of Bihar. They could speak some English, but not much ; hence classroom sessions were conducted in both English and Hindi, with constant translation of any English sentence by an interpreter. All our training material (slides , hand-outs, question papers) had also been translated into Hindi for the benefit of the participants. Yet we witnessed an amazing zeal to learn new English words that pertained to their businesses, as if they saw these words as currency for garnering status in the eyes of their peers (remember that these were all rural micro-entrep[reneurs). There were participants who’d stop us mid-sentence and ask us to spell out ‘negotiation’, ‘consumer’ etc. and earnestly write down the English word in their notebooks.

English learning appsNo wonder there’s such a huge market for English learning apps and so many of them available now. There’re generic apps like Busuu through which anyone can learn English ( or another of a set of languages) by having conversations with native speakers of that language. There’re English Dost and enguru, both of which use a game with real-life situations to help users learn English, these seem to target those joining the corporate sector in junior management roles. English Seekho by IMImobile and IL&FS Education & Technology Services limited target a very different audience – junior level clerks, traders, unskilled laborers, frontline staff, taxi drivers, restaurant waiters etc. There’s also the British Council site that has several English learning apps, podcasts etc., and even an app to help Taxi drivers learn English to communicate better with their customers ! Clearly there’s a ton of demand from a large number of segments.

  • Zenobia Driver

December 10, 2015 at 1:18 pm Leave a comment

India – Internet Statistics

India-Internet

Since we’ve received some questions after the last two posts, we felt that it was time to share some more data on this topic. As this info-graphic is quite detailed, we may write a post or two on some of the implications of the numbers in this one , but you’ll have to wait a week or two to read those.

  • Ravindra Ramavath

 

September 9, 2014 at 5:52 am 1 comment

Quality of Available Education

As promised in our last post, here are some interesting statistics from Pratham’s ASER survey about the quality of education available currently.   Education infographic - ASER 2013

 

 

In addition, for viewing this data by state, click on this link to view the enrolment data, and on this link to view the data on arithmetic ability. If interested, you can also view the changes in these parameters over time.

  • Ravindra Ramavath

May 15, 2014 at 9:28 am Leave a comment

Micro-entrepreneurs and Math

Our last post focussed on literacy levels and the availability of schools in a few focus states. This post is anecdotal in nature and contains some observations about the various ways in which the lack of a quality education hinders micro-entrepreneurs from developing necessary business skills and attaining their full potential ; the next post will share some quantitative data on the quality of education available to children currently.

While interacting with adult learners at the Cream training programmes offered by Tree Society to rural micro-entrepreneurs, I’ve noticed that they struggle with basic math and/or with the application of basic math. Yet, the adults undergoing CREAM training are not illiterate; all of them have attended school for at least a few years, most are 10th or 12th pass, and some are graduates from a local college.

 

There are those who know the calculations – can manage division, decimals, percentages etc. – but struggle to apply these in real-life situations.

[  A simple example : The owner of a small business may know what percentage is and even how to convert a percentage to a value; i.e. he knows that 10% of 200 = 20

But he may struggle when faced with a question in words. ‘A business sold goods worth Rs. 4000 this month. It expects a 10% increase in sale value next month. What will be the value of total sales next month ?’ ]

I have also noticed another phenomenon – even when they learn how to apply a formula and use it, any change in the structure of the problem or in the way they need to apply a formula leaves them slightly confused as algebraic manipulation is a skill not taught to them. For example, even if they understand a formula for profitability and its application, they are unable to rearrange and apply the formula to a problem where desired profitability and costs are known, but selling price and revenue are to be calculated.

Then there are some adults who seem to have learnt hardly any Math beyond counting and addition in childhood. They struggle with sums that involve simple division and cannot interpret decimals or fractions correctly. They are fazed by basic calculations such as margin or profit %, growth rate etc. As a result, the micro – businesses they run are inefficient and fail in adopting well-established processes such as setting the right selling price for their product, or estimating the right amount of raw material based on a sales forecast, or making a reasonably accurate sales estimate in the first place. The experience of teaching this set of micro-entrepreneurs made me start wondering about the state of primary education in our country and the implications on the supposed demographic dividend (or liability) for our future.

In fact, as data from Pratham’s ASER survey shows, it’s no surprise that so many of the adult learners struggled with division; even today, only 25% of children in class V can solve a division problem, and this proportion rises to only 46% of students in class VIII (wait for our next post for more information and some interesting infographics on this).

  • Zenobia Driver

May 13, 2014 at 4:47 pm 3 comments

India’s Demographic Dividend and Education

In this post last year, we’d looked at the composition of the increase in India’s population from 2001 to 2026 and seen that nearly 50% of all births between 2001 and 2026 will be in 7 states – Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Bihar, Jharkhand, Uttaranchal, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. One of the points we’d wondered about in that post was whether good quality education is and would be available to these children. The infographics that follow share some basic information about the supply of education; we’ll share information on the quality of available education in a subsequent post. Till then, to whet your appetite on the topic of quality, here’s a link to a article from the Mint on the available infrastructure and quality of education in Bihar.

Slide4

 

Slide5

  • Ravindra Ramavath

April 3, 2014 at 5:50 am 1 comment

Beauty ‘saaluns’ in villages – a sign of change

A few months ago, during a CREAM (Certificate in Rural Enterprise Administration and Management) training session for micro-entrepreneurs in rural Bihar, we enquired about the professions of each. Turned out that each of the three women taking the course aced at multi-tasking ; apart from managing the house, each held down two other occupations. My first reaction was amazement at the amount of work that they packed into their day, but later I was struck by the fact that two out of these three women ran beauty parlours (or as they pronounced it, ‘saaluns’) out of their homes.

We asked these ladies which treatments their customers went in for and it was more than just hair-cuts – facial, eye-brow threading etc. In villages in Bihar ! So beauty consciousness is increasing not just in urban India, but in rural India too.

This article from the Mint also mentions this trend, albeit in passing. This article, from the Mint again quotes Mr. C.K.Ranganathan, Chairman and Managing Director of CavinKare, “The rural consumer has become more beauty conscious and is willing to spend more on personal grooming.”

Wonder which are the companies benefiting from this trend ? and whether they are using these ladies who run beauty parlours from their homes as influencers ?

We’ll try to dig deeper into this topic with time, so keep visiting this blog for more information on the topic.

  • Zenobia Driver

February 11, 2014 at 10:32 am Leave a comment

Updates

In Jan of this year, we’d written this post about the implications of India’s demographic dividend.

One of the things I’d wondered about in this post was the supply of quality education for young children, especially in the 7 states where almost 50% of the births during 2000-2025 will occur. This article from the Mint gives us an idea of the current state of education infrastructure in Bihar, one of the 7 states.

One of the implications of the change in India’s demographic profile is the change in the age-profile of voters across the country. Recent data released from Census 2011 shows an interesting trend. Read this article from the Mint to see why first-time voters are a critical constituency in all states. As the article mentions, ‘a whopping 47% of eligible voters in next year’s national election will be aged 35 or below’, a fairly significant chunk for any political party to target.

Collated by,
Zenobia

September 11, 2013 at 11:42 am Leave a comment

A different (and less heard) perspective on the Food Security Bill

There’s been a lot of sound and fury expressed in various media about the recently passed Food Security Bill. Most of the articles that I’ve come across have bemoaned the bill, the coarse populism and the hollow economics at the heart of it ; few have actually supported it, fewer still with simple facts and cogent reasoning.

Recently came across an news article that supported the bill and gave a few facts; coincidentally, later the same day I read a blog post along somewhat similar lines but with much more data. Links to both given below :
Click here to read the news article by Anil Padamanabhan, and here for the blog post by Richa Govil.
(Disclaimer : Richa is a friend, one whose writing I like and often quote on this blog, or post in entirety.)
  • Zenobia Driver

September 4, 2013 at 7:42 am Leave a comment

Some implications of the distribution of our ‘demographic dividend’

A Unicef report titled ‘The Situation of Children in India : A Profile’ tells us that India is home to 20 per cent of the 0-4 years’ child population of the world, which is significantly larger than the number in China even. The number of live births in our country is estimated to be 27 million, which again constitutes 20 per cent of the total number of live births in the world. Reason enough for this to be a really important market for any business that sells products or services to babies, toddlers or kids, whether in the mass segment or premium.


changes in India's popn pyramid A comparison of the change in the population pyramids of various countries – we looked at these in this post  a few weeks back – tells us that India will continue to be an attractive destination for such firms at least another 15-20 years. Though the decline in fertility levels means that the base of India’s population pyramid in 2026 will be narrower than that in 2001, it will continue to be larger than that of other countries for some time still.

The Census of India’s Population Projection Report has some interesting data on the composition of this increase in population. You can access the entire report here, some points from the same below (in blue font) :

  • 22% of the total population increase in India of 371 million during 2001-26 is anticipated to occur in Uttar Pradesh alone. 

Percentage share of states in total projected population increase during 2001-26

  • In fact, nearly 50% of India’s demographic growth during this period of twenty five years, is projected to take place in the seven erstwhile BIMARU states (Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand,Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh and Uttaranchal); i.e. of the projected increase in population  of 371 million in India during 2001-26,187 million will occur in these seven states.
  • In contrast, the contribution of the four southern states, namely Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Kerala and Tamil Nadu, to the total increase in population size of the country during 2001-2026 is expected to be 47 million -13% of total demographic growth of the country.

This raises a few points relevant to companies selling age or life-stage related products. Those selling products for babies, toddlers or kids would do well to keep in mind that a large chunk of their market in 2026 will be in the erstwhile BIMARU states. They need to plan for building a good distribution infrastructure in those regions and for generating demand after understanding those customers, their sociocultural backgrounds, lifestyles and needs etc. This will be especially critical for companies aiming at scale and large revenues.

If however, they are strong in the southern states and intend to remain geographically focussed, they need to think about where growth will come from once the penetration reaches saturation level. The selected strategy could be in the domain of brand extensions / new products to existing consumer and customer segments, or targeting new consumer segments, but neither option has easy quick-fix solutions.

With due apologies to those that object to the idea of education as a business, another point to ponder over is the supply (or lack therein) of good quality education at every level. This is a service that has been in short supply all over India, more so in the BIMARU states, is this changing at all ? There is some anecdotal evidence I’ve heard of the student mix in colleges in the south changing as the percentage of those from the North increased. But for those at primary and secondary level, studying outside the state (and away from parents) is not an option. What options do they have ? But this runs into the topic for the next post on the topic, which will look at some of the sociocultural implications of this demographic shift.

  •  Zenobia Driver

January 24, 2013 at 8:14 am 3 comments

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