Posts filed under ‘India Stats’

Mobile Penetration, Mobile Data Speed and Consumption in India

In this blog post, we mentioned that India is the #2 market in terms of Internet users behind China. But did you know that India was the #2 telecommunications market in terms of subscribers since 2008?

The telecom revolution stated in India on July 31st 1995 with a mobile call between the then WB chief minister, Jyoti Basu, and Union communications minister, Sukh Ram.  Since then, mobile phones have permeated everywhere in India. There are 1,036 million telecom subscribers, 97% of these being mobile subscribers. The urban mobile teledensity is a mind boggling 147, 3x higher than rural at 49 (overall mobile teledensity of 79.2).

With such high penetration numbers, every telecom operator is now turning towards data to increase revenues. The growing smartphone penetration in India, driven by cheap handsets is expected to fuel this. In 2016, smart phone shipments are expected to overtake that of feature phones with analysts pointing out factors that can drive the average price of a smartphone further down from Rs.10,700/- in 2015.

While users in India are still more concerned about voice quality than data services (and the leading telecom operator has tried to take the high ground on this aspect with the open network campaign), among smart phone users elsewhere, data speed is considered to be the most important factor in determining both network performance and satisfaction with an operator.

 

mobile

 

[Here’s a quick look at the data in the infographic above (2015 data) :

  • 1,010.9 million wireless telecom subscribers
  • 311.7 million wireless internet subscribers
    • 60% of these connections are on GPRS/Edge networks
    • 36% on 3G technologies such as HSPA/WCDMA
    • & only 0.8% of connections are on 4g networks technologies such as EVDO/CDMA/LTE
  • The average mobile connection speed was 1,016 kbps with…
    • … the average 2G speed at 77 kbps
    • … the average 3G speed at 1,932 kbps and
    • … the average 4G speed at 9,415 kbps
  • The average mobile-connected end-user device generated 149 megabytes of mobile data traffic per month
    • Average non-smartphone generated 49 megabytes of mobile data traffic
    • Average smartphone generated 430 megabytes of mobile data traffic per month
      • 9x more mobile data traffic per month than a basic handset
      • Within this, the average 4G smartphone generated 1,256 MB of traffic per month in 2015, compared to 430 MB for non-4G smartphones.
    • Average tablet generated 1,671 megabytes of mobile data traffic per month
      • 34x more mobile data traffic per month than a basic handset
  • There are an estimated 239 million mobile connected smartphones, 23.9% of device connections, and they generated 69.1% of total mobile traffic
    • Incidentally, India has overtaken Japan to become the world’s third largest smartphone market
  • There are 3.8 million tablets, 0.4% of device connections generating 4.2% of total mobile traffic
  • In India, mobile video traffic is estimated to grow 20.8-fold from 2015 to 2020, a compound annual growth rate of 83%.
  • Currently, web and other data applications generate about 48% of mobile data traffic, Video generates 40% , streaming audio generates 10% and file-sharing the balace 2% of India’s mobile data traffic
  • Currently web browsing, emailing and social networking are the top three internet activities on smartphones ]

 

What these numbers tell you is that Indians are embracing the internet on the mobile, not PC. And this mobile Internet is currently work and social networking related. Going forward it will be increasingly video.

However, the quantum of consumption is still low. For example, the 430 MB consumed at an average speed of 2.643 kbps by an average smartphone on an average mobile connection is good enough to stream about half a movie in SD quality from Netflix. And, if you are going to use a social network like Facebook exclusively, it will last you about 4-5 hours (1 -2 MB per minute). These are of course averages. There is always the pareto principle, 33.9 Million mobile users (~11% of total mobile internet users) consume over 2 gigabytes of data per month. And it is from survey of these users, that you hear the hype about mobiles and apps.

The next few years are going to be exciting in this space, launch of multiple high spec smartphones at Rs.10,000 price points, roll out of 4G LTE (and imminent data price wars) and better last mile connectivity  will further fuel mobile data consumption.

{The Cisco, Ericsson, CMI and TRAI reports are sources for this article and infographic, and can be accessed at the links given.}

  • Ravindra Ramavath
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September 8, 2016 at 3:05 pm Leave a comment

E-commerce – Proportional contribution by categories

Our last post was on the penetration of e-commerce and the proportion of retail sales contributed by e-commerce , across 5 countries. After reading it, one of our loyal readers asked us for some more information about e-commerce in India. Hence, this time we’re looking at the total value of e-commerce sales contributed by various categories of purchase / transaction.

India Ecom Contrib v2

 

The pie-chart above shows the proportion of e-commerce sales contributed by various categories in India :

(Data source: IAMAI IMRB Icube 2015 )

  • In India, the total value of e-commerce transactions was a whopping Rs. 125, 732 cr in 2015, and it grew at 28% CAGR between 2012-15.
  • That online travel drives a bulk of e-commerce revenue in India is a fact that anyone who reads a newspaper is aware of ; this chart adds the details – 61% of the total e-commerce revenue of Rs. 1.25 lakh crore was driven by online travel. Of this, domestic air tickets are the largest chunk, followed by railway tickets, and then international air tickets.
    • While online travel grew at a CAGR of 30% over the three years from ’12 to ‘15, rail tickets (17% CAGR) and domestic ticketing (22% CAGR) are slowing down the growth
  • What we typically call e-commerce and should more accurately be termed e-tailing – i.e. the purchase of various types of products online – is actually just 30% of the total value of e-commerce transactions.
    • However, e-tailing grew at a CAGR of 80% from ’12 to ‘15
    • The 3 categories within ‘e-tailing’ that are driving the growth are ‘Mobiles phones’ (126% CAGR),’consumer durables’ (135% CAGR) and ‘home furnishings’ (94% CAGR).
  • The ‘Food delivery’ segment , albeit relatively small at just 1.4% of total e-commerce, also grew by leaps and bounds with an 89% CAGR from ’12 to ‘15.

 

Now that we’re familiar with the data for India, let’s compare the proportional split of e-commerce sales in India by category with that in the U.S. :

India, US Ecom Contrib v2

(Data source: IAMAI IMRB Icube 2015 ; eMarketer Apr 14 for US showing 2015 projection, validated through other sources  )

  • In e-tailing in India, there is an over-dependence on ‘computers, durables and consumer electronics’ as compared to the U.S. – almost 50% of total e-tailing in India vs. 22% in U.S.
  • If we benchmark to U.S., most categories in India – e.g. ‘apparel’, ‘personal care’, ‘home furnishings’, ‘books’, ‘auto and parts’ – have the scope to grow faster than ‘computers, durables and electronics’. Of course, benchmarking to the U.S. is something that could led to wrong conclusions too, as so many e-commerce firms in the hyperlocal space have seen recently ; hence the need to tread carefully after investigating consumer needs, current satisfaction levels and the nature of the gap
    • Interestingly, ‘Auto and components’ is something that hasn’t taken off in e-commerce in India at all, while in the U.S. it is 10% of e-commerce by value. The Indian online car market is limited to ‘second hand cars’ which is mostly a ‘classifieds’ business.

 

  • Ravindra Ramavath

August 22, 2016 at 10:36 am Leave a comment

E-commerce – penetration and value of retail sales, across 5 countries

In Q4 ’15, India surpassed the US to become the #2 market in terms of Internet users behind China. However, e-commerce sales in India are nowhere near the value they generate in the U.S. or in China. So here’s a look at internet penetration, digital buyers and e-commerce sales of the top 5 countries by total retail Sales.

We’ve been interested in this topic for a few years now ; in this post almost two years ago we tried to gauge the penetration of e-commerce in four BRIC countries by comparing the proportion of their population that was active online vs. the proportion of population that actually shopped online. In today’s post, we’ve gone one step further and looked at the value of sales originating from those that shop online, i.e. the proportion of total retail sales value that is contributed through the e-commerce channel. For this purpose, the countries that we’ve chosen are those that are the top 5 in terms of total value of retail sales, namely USA, China, Japan, Germany and India, in decreasing order of sales value.

ECom_Contrib

[Since there’s a lot of information in this infographic, here’s how to read it :

Each of these five countries is linked to two sets of concentric circles, one in the top half of the chart and one in the bottom half of the chart. The set of concentric circles on the top had population numbers and that at the bottom has sales figures. Now for the details.

Let’s consider India as an example. The outermost circle in the top set of concentric circles for India tells us that our country has 925 mn people aged 14 years or more. The circle inside it shows that of these 925 mn people, 221 million or 24% are internet users. The innermost circle shows that only 82 Mn – or 9% of the 925 mn people – are digital shoppers and make online purchases of goods and services other than travel and events.

The bottom circle linked to each country shows the total value of retail sales and the proportion that is conducted via e-commerce. For instance, total retail sales in India are estimated at 818 Bn USD, and that conducted over e-commerce is just 14 Bn USD, or 1.7% of the total.]

So in spite of all the hype around this channel and the huge spend on advertising by the e-commerce players, a mere 9 % of our population shops online, and these purchases account for only 1% of total retail sales. Why only 1% ? Either due to a lower frequency of shopping online vs. visiting a retail store and / or due to a lower value of goods being purchased online. The latter seems unlikely since a large proportion of online sales are for mobile phones and accessories, followed by apparel and footwear, so it must be the low frequency to blame. Two big obstacles for e-commerce to surmount are now clear – the low penetration of online shopping amongst internet users, and the low frequency of online shopping among those that do shop online.

On to our neighbour China. While 56% of their total population is online, over half of these make purchases online. No wonder that sales through the e-commerce channel are 15.9% of total retail sales in China, as the bottom circle shows.

Surprisingly, though the US has a far greater proportion of population that makes purchases online ( 65% of its total population buys through e-commerce), these account for only 7.1% of total retail sales. Wonder whether it’s the ugly frequency problem rearing its head again, or whether it’s due to low unit value of goods purchased.

  • Ravindra Ramavath

July 25, 2016 at 11:16 am Leave a comment

Infographic – India expenditure data , rural

We’d earlier shared a set of infographics on per capita expenditure on various categories in urban India (https://escape-velocity-blog.com/2015/08/19/infographic-india-expenditure-data-urban/ ), and the trends over time therein (https://escape-velocity-blog.com/2015/09/22/infographic-india-expenditure-trend-urban/ ). This post shares similar data for rural India.

India MPCE - Expenditure data - Rural

The first point to note is that the average MPCE (monthly per capita expenditure) is much lower for rural India vs. that for urban India (Rs. 1429.96 vs. Rs. 2629.6 respectively). Hence, while the absolute value of expenditure on various categories may be lower in rural India, as a percentage of the MPCE it’s much higher. For instance, though the average monthly spend on food is Rs. 622 per capita, it is 48.6% of the total per capita expenditure ; this is closer to the proportion spent by the poorer fractiles of the population in urban India. One area on which folk in rural India spend much less than their counterparts in urban areas is housing, others are education and transportation. In almost every other category, the proportional spends (spending on category as a % of average MPCE) of rural folk are actually higher than those from urban areas.

 

  • Ravindra Ramavath

 

June 6, 2016 at 11:55 am 1 comment

Infographic – India expenditure trend, urban

India Expenditure Trend Urban - trends

  • Urban India has seen an increase of 128% in MPCE(URP) based on current prices
    • Real MPCE (measured using a price deflator with 1987-88 as base) has increased 29% between ‘04 to ’11, a CAGR of 3.7%
  • Share of food in MPCE declined by about 4pp in urban India between ’04 -’12 , you can clearly see the light green band receding from the right end
    • A few more points that are not shown in the graph :
      • Within foods, except for Milk, fruits & Beverages, all other products categories tracked have fallen in contribution.
        • While Milk and fruits has increased by 1pp, beverages have increased from 15% to 18% within foods
      • Cereals have registered the largest decline – from 24% to 19%
    • Among the rest of expenditure, durable & minor durable type goods has seen the highest jump of 2.4pp followed by rent at 1.4pp and clothing & bedding at 1.3.
    • Also, notice the steady rise in medical and education expenses
    • Proportion of spends on entertainment have also risen, albeit off a small base

The method of computing MPCE is rather interesting ; next week we’ll share an infographic on that too.

  • Ravindra Ramavath

September 22, 2015 at 2:47 pm Leave a comment

India – Internet Statistics

India-Internet

Since we’ve received some questions after the last two posts, we felt that it was time to share some more data on this topic. As this info-graphic is quite detailed, we may write a post or two on some of the implications of the numbers in this one , but you’ll have to wait a week or two to read those.

  • Ravindra Ramavath

 

September 9, 2014 at 5:52 am 1 comment

Quality of Available Education

As promised in our last post, here are some interesting statistics from Pratham’s ASER survey about the quality of education available currently.   Education infographic - ASER 2013

 

 

In addition, for viewing this data by state, click on this link to view the enrolment data, and on this link to view the data on arithmetic ability. If interested, you can also view the changes in these parameters over time.

  • Ravindra Ramavath

May 15, 2014 at 9:28 am Leave a comment

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